India, the world's largest democracy, had three very different surges of SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, 2021 and 2022 corresponding to the transmission of the ancestral strain, the rise of the Delta variant and the final Omicron wave.
The human behavior and public health intervention strategies were also very different during these three waves.
About the event
In this presentation, we provide a brief chronicle of the modeling experience of our study team over the last two years, looking at the data from India, leading to the development of a tiered data-driven framework for public health interventions towards pandemic resilience.
Through mathematical modeling we study the timing and duration of public health interventions with intervention effects estimated from actual data. We illustrate that early and sustained interventions can help us avoid harsh lockdowns and reduce COVID mortality drastically.
We also quantify the estimated number of missing COVID-deaths in India which are orders of magnitude larger than reported COVID-deaths. This is joint work with many, with all supporting research materials and products available at covind19.org.
Opening remarks: Professor Sylvia Richardson & Dr. Philip Smith (UKHSA)
Presentation by: Professor Bhramar Mukherjee
Closing remarks: Dr. Philip Smith