Bio

Arzu Kibris is an Associate Professor of Politics at the Department of Politics and International Studies at University of Warwick. Her main research interests include the dynamics and social, political and economic consequences of civil conflicts as well as formal analyses of political and economic behaviour. Her work has been published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, Social Science & Medicine, Public Choice, and Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, among other journals. She received the prestigious ERC Starting Grant in 2016 for her project EXPOVIBE: Exposure to Political Violence and Individual Behavior in which she explores the individual level effects of being exposed to political violence in a civil conflict context.

Research interests

Her research focuses on studying how violent events evolve over time and space within a civil conflict context and on analysing whether there is a predictable pattern to the diffusion of violence that we can decipher. Needless to say, these are very important questions. The typical civil conflict lasts about 10 years and wreaks havoc to the host country. If we can figure out the spatial and temporal dynamics of civil conflicts, pre-emptive actions and policies can then be devised to prevent violence from ever happening or to nip these humanitarian disasters in the bud. This is a rather ambitious goal that requires significant advancements in data availability, theoretical understanding, empirical methodology and predictive capability. She aims to contribute to those advancements in a significant way by introducing a new, comprehensive and detailed conflict event dataset and by building theoretically sound statistical models with good fit and high predictive capability.