Introduction
This project will build understanding of networked data through a combination of data processing for firm-to-firm transactions data held by Office for National Statistics (ONS), economic modelling and
Explaining the science
When analysing high-dimensional panels of macroeconomic or financial time series state-of-the-art methods tend to suffer from at least two main limitations.
Firstly, they often consider only linear dependencies. In contrast, real such time series are interconnected through a complex network of dependencies, and this network can
Furthermore, traditional theoretical models in economics and finance assume that in large ecosystems the influence of a few individual agents is negligible. Yet in large economic
The envisioned research will combine methods from machine learning and network analysis to reveal such hidden factors in the analysis of two types of high-dimensional data
Project aims
The project aims to produce a dataset of firm-to-firm transaction flows in the UK to provide high frequency/high geographic resolution indicators to help understand the impact
- Reorganisation of supply chains and Brexit
- Supply chain fragility
- Propagation of localised supply disruptions through the production network
Alongside this, the project aims to provide methodological improvements for working with network and high dimensional economic data in order to provide accurate and
Applications
The outputs of this project will provide policy makers with detailed economic indicators at high levels of frequency and regional specificity. These indicators could be used to
- Supply chain disruptions and bottlenecks, supply chain fragility and systemic risk analysis
- Propagation of shocks (e.g. COVID-19 or Brexit-related)
- Monetary and fiscal policy transmission
Organisers
François Lafond
Senior Researcher, University of OxfordProfessor Gesine Reinert
Turing FellowDr Mihai Cucuringu
Turing FellowKeith Lai
Assistant Deputy Director, Office for National StatisticsVictor Meirinhos
Office for National StatisticsResearchers and collaborators
Anastasia Mantziou
Research AssociateKerstin Hotte
Research AssociateContact info
Tony Zemaitis
[email protected]