Introduction

A modern economy is an intricately linked web of specialised producers, each reliant on a flow of inputs from suppliers to produce outputs that are required by other elements further down the line.

Project aims

In this project, we will investigate whether information on the structure of this production network can help both produce better forecasts of sector-level and aggregate growth rates, and quantify the influence of particular sectors on both disaggregated and aggregate forecasts.

Early results from this work suggest that knowledge of the underlying production network can lead to gains in efficiency for aggregate growth forecasting.

Based on US industrial production data, using this knowledge can lead to a 15% improvement on standard growth forecasting approaches, for all horizons 3-12 months ahead.

Organisers

Researchers and collaborators

Contact info

[email protected]

Funders